There has been a great deal of controversy over the last several years regarding what types of…

There has been a great deal of controversy over the last several years regarding what types of surveillance are appropriate to prevent terrorism. Suppose a particular surveillance system has a 99% chance of correctly identifying a future terrorist and a 99.9% chance of correctly identifying someone who is not a future terrorist. Imagine there are 1000 future terrorists in a population of 300 million (roughly the US population). If one of these 300 million people is randomly selected and the system determines him/her to be a future terrorist, what is the probability the system is correct? Does

There has been a great deal of controversy over the last several years regarding what types of surveillance are appropriate to prevent terrorism. Suppose a particular surveillance system has a 99% chance of correctly identifying a future terrorist and a 99.9% chance of correctly identifying someone who is not a future terrorist. Imagine there are 1000 future terrorists in a population of 300 million (roughly the US population). If one of these 300 million people is randomly selected and the system determines him/her to be a future terrorist, what is the probability the system is correct? Does your answer make you uneasy about using the surveillance system? Explain.

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