Truth in the Face of Uncertainty
This week provided an overview of intelligence collection, analysis, and the need for analysts to reduce uncertainty. As we begin to think about the assigned readings consider what common themes emerge.
Did the authors diverge on any concepts? If so, in what manner?
What role does the concept of “truth” have when performing intelligence analysis? What about when it comes to the reduction of uncertainty?
What are some key challenges that come to light when it comes to intelligence analysis, truth, and the reduction of uncertainty?
Reading/ Sourcing Material
Analyzing Intelligence : National Security Practitioners’ Perspectives
Reducing Uncertainty : Intelligence Analysis and National Security
Chapter 1, “Reducing Uncertainty.”
Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach, 5th ed
Chapters 1-7. Hard Copy Text/VitalSource eBook. Purchase required for those not covered by the Book Grant
Bauer, Mick. 2002. “Practical Threat Analysis and Risk Management. Linux Journal 16 (January 1). Accessed December 2, 2015. http://www.linuxjournal.com/article/5567.
Davis, Jack. 2003. “Sherman Kent’s Final Thoughts on Analyst-Policymaker Relations.” Occasional Papers 2, no. 3, (June). Langley, VA: The Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis. Accessed May 8, 2012. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cia/strategic_warning_kent.htm.
Domby, Daniel. 2010. “U.S. Intelligence: Tribal Warfare.” Financial Times. (May 12). Accessed December 2, 2015. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0a252d6e-2c6e-11df-be45-00144feabdc0.html
Heuer, Richards J. Jr. 1999. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Langley, VA: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency. Accessed January 8, 2011. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/psych-intel/art5.html.
Johnston, Rob. 2005. “Analytic Culture in the US Intelligence Community.” Langley, VA: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
Risk Steering Committee. 2010. DHS Risk Lexicon. U.S Department of Homeland Security.